Sequence risk

What changes when the same crash arrives early or later?

All three paths use the same starting portfolio, smooth return, spending and inflation. The crash size and recovery are identical too. Only its position around withdrawals changes.

One plan, one moved crash

Money results are after inflation. Tax is set to zero here so timing remains the only moving part.

Portfolio when retirement starts€ Desired total monthly income€ Monthly pension, net€ Retirement periodyears Cumulative crash% Later crash starts in retirement yearyear

Return and crash-shape assumptions

Smooth annual return% Inflation% Crash develops overmonths Recovery to the original path overmonths

Required fields are marked. Review the optional settings, then calculate.

Reset

What this isolates

Withdrawals turn return order into a real difference

Without withdrawals, the recovering crash has the same multiplicative effect wherever it occurs. Selling while prices are depressed removes shares before they can recover.

Read the baseline correctly

The smooth path is a comparison, not a forecast

Its job is to hold the assumed return constant so the two crash positions can be compared. Real markets will not deliver the smooth line.

Try next

Add pension income or lower fixed spending

When secure income covers more of the target, fewer shares need to be sold during the depressed period. The Full Simulator can add tax and more market episodes.