Sequence-risk calculator

What changes when the same crash arrives early or later?

All three paths use the same starting portfolio, smooth return, spending and inflation. The crash size and recovery are identical too. Only its position around withdrawals changes.

Difference at plan end: early versus later crash

€16,808 less after the early crash

No crash€349,864 real portfolio at plan end

Lowest real balance: €348,614
Portfolio depleted: No

Same crash at retirement start€297,455 real portfolio at plan end

Lowest real balance: €296,392
Portfolio depleted: No

Same crash later€314,263 real portfolio at plan end

Lowest real balance: €303,817
Portfolio depleted: No

The same cumulative crash and recovery, moved around withdrawals

Retirement year · later crash starts in year 10

No crashCrash at retirement startCrash later

Show annual balance table

Retirement year	No crash	Crash at start	Crash later
0	€500,000	€500,000	€500,000
1	€497,256	€359,277	€497,256
2	€494,608	€438,101	€494,608
3	€491,843	€475,415	€491,843
4	€488,957	€471,808	€488,957
5	€485,945	€468,042	€485,945
6	€482,799	€464,111	€482,799
7	€479,516	€460,008	€479,516
8	€476,089	€455,724	€476,089
9	€472,511	€451,252	€439,637
10	€468,777	€446,584	€338,287
11	€464,878	€441,711	€410,923
12	€460,808	€436,624	€444,380
13	€456,559	€431,314	€439,410
14	€452,124	€425,770	€434,222
15	€447,494	€419,983	€428,806
16	€442,661	€413,942	€423,153
17	€437,616	€407,636	€417,251
18	€432,349	€401,053	€411,090
19	€426,851	€394,181	€404,659
20	€421,112	€387,008	€397,945
21	€415,121	€379,519	€390,937
22	€408,866	€371,702	€383,621
23	€402,337	€363,541	€375,983
24	€395,522	€355,022	€368,011
25	€388,407	€346,130	€359,688
26	€380,980	€336,846	€351,000
27	€373,227	€327,156	€341,931
28	€365,133	€317,039	€332,463
29	€356,684	€306,479	€322,580
30	€349,864	€297,455	€314,263

Open the early-crash plan in the Full Simulator

What this isolates

Withdrawals turn return order into a real difference

Without withdrawals, the recovering crash has the same multiplicative effect wherever it occurs. Selling while prices are depressed removes shares before they can recover.

Read the baseline correctly

The smooth path is a comparison, not a forecast

Its job is to hold the assumed return constant so the two crash positions can be compared. Real markets will not deliver the smooth line.

Try next

Add pension income or lower fixed spending

When secure income covers more of the target, fewer shares need to be sold during the depressed period. The Full Simulator can add tax and more market episodes.