Should spare money go into the mortgage or into the market?
Example
Overpaying earns the mortgage rate, guaranteed and untaxed. Investing earns whatever the market gives, and the gain is taxed. This works out the return that would make the two come out level.As of · Reader-selected contract and tax assumptions
What this answers
Which destination leaves you better off
The same money goes in either way, for the same years. The difference between the two is the interest avoided against the growth earned, after tax.
What it does not answer
How certain either side is
The mortgage rate is contractual and the market return is a guess. A break-even the market has usually beaten is not a promise that it will, and paying down debt has a value no calculator can price.
Use the result
Compare it with what you would actually do
A guaranteed rate is worth more to somebody who would lose sleep over a bad decade. If the two are close, the tie-breaker is not arithmetic.